You  hear lots of predictions about China in Western media: about its economy slowing down, crashing, or ‘landing hard’. Ignore them. They’re from the same people and media who’ve been making the same predictions for 40 years. They’ve always been 100% wrong and there’s no reason to expect them to be right this year. Just for fun, let’s review their track record for the past 15 years:

2001. A hard landing in China. and heightened fears of Global markets tumbled in the … healthy rally in the fourth quarter, with China’s market triggering its 7% circuit  ..First Quarter 2001 – Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas

2002. China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing …… A hard landing – a steep decline in economic growth leading to higher urban … to deal with wayward companies, said Andy Xie, a Morgan Stanley economist.

2003 – a hard landing in China is always the risk.The just-released inflation report for November 2003 is worrisome.  China Daily

2004. The great fall of China? If China’s soaring economy has a hard landing, the rest of the world … of 4.5% in the second half of 2003, consumer spending rose by only 1%| The Economist

2005 – The Risk of a Hard Landing in 2005-2006. Nouriel Roubini … In 2003, the world’s central banks added $440 billion of … 2 Since the transfer of $45 b of Chinese reserves to their insolvent state banks is effectively a diversion Nouriel Roubini

2006. Can Beijing pilot China towards a soft landing? Measures taken have yet to show results, and effects of a hard landing will hit far and … Since 2003, however, Chinese leaders have had to grapple with this..- CCTR

2007. Is China’s Economy Overheating? By Bill Powell / Shanghai Thursday, Apr. 19, 2007 … So, why is it important that China avoid a “hard landing, and how serious is the risk that it might not? – TIME

2008. Hard Landing In China? 11/06/2008 @ 12:01AM … In a country with the potential growth of China, a hard landing would occur if the growth rate of the economy were to slow down to 5%.. – Forbes

2009. China’s hard landing – Mar 5, 2009 – With exports shrinking and unemployment rising, China must find a way to recover. That will take longer than most think. – Fortune

2010: ’Hard landing’ coming in China, warns Nouriel Roubini. The Australian

2011: Why A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think.  Business Insider.

2012: More Dismal Economic News from China: Is a Hard Landing. May 25, 2012 – Li Keqiang, the man widely tipped to become China’s new premier later this year … More Dismal Economic News from China: Is a Hard Landing…The American Interest.

2013: A Hard Landing In China. The impact of a Chinese hard landing on the rest of the world could be aggravated by the fact that … Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2013 23:17 -0400 … Zero Hedge

2014. A hard landing in China: The risks in one graphic. A hard landing in China: The risks in one graphic. Friday, 31 Jan 2014 | 6:37 AM ET- CNBC

China in Western Media

China in Western Media



2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Sep 3, 2015 – So you wanted a Chinese hard landing and have been predicting it for years … 2, 2015. U.S. and global stock markets were recovering in late … Forbes

2016. Soros Says China Hard Landing Will Deepen the Rout in …George Soros said China’s economy is headed for a hard landing, … January 21, 2016 — 12:07 PM PST Updated on January 21, 2016. Bloomberg


2016. China’s ‘hard landing’ may have already happened | Agora

Finally, here’s a great quote from one of the world’s leading commentators on international finance, Gideon Rachmann of the Financial Times: “It is clearly true that China has enormous political and economic challenges ahead. Yet future instability is highly unlikely to derail the rise of China. Whatever the wishful thinking of some in the west, we are not suddenly going to wake up and discover that the Chinese miracle was, in fact, a mirage. My own scepticism about China is tempered by the knowledge that analysts in the west have been predicting the end of the Chinese boom almost since it began. In the mid-1990s, as the Asia editor of The Economist, I was perpetually running stories about the inherent instability of China – whether it was dire predictions about the fragility of the banking system, or reports of savage infighting at the top of the Communist party. In 2003, I purchased a much-acclaimed book, Gordon Chang’s, The Coming Collapse of China – which predicted that the Chinese miracle had five years to run, at most. So now, when I read that China’s banks are near collapse, that the countryside is in a ferment of unrest, that the cities are on the brink of environmental disaster and that the middle-classes are in revolt, I am tempted to yawn and turn the page. I really have heard it all before”.

Written by Godfree
Visiting China and studying it since 1967. Interested in its culture, politics, education and economy.